Arab Voters Cheer Israel Election Exit Polls as Netanyahu Faces Setback
Supporters celebrated at an Arab-party headquarters in Nazareth after exit polls put Netanyahu’s bloc behind its rivals. Neither side has a clear majority, and claims of celebrations in Kafr Manda remain unverified.
Cheers rang out at an Arab-party election headquarters in Nazareth on Tuesday night as Israeli television exit polls pointed to a setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But the figures left a crucial question unanswered: who, if anyone, can form the country's next government?
The first projections from Israel's 27 October parliamentary election put a group of Jewish-led opposition parties slightly ahead of Netanyahu's political allies, while giving Arab-led parties a substantially larger presence in the 120-seat Knesset. They did not hand either side the 61 seats required for a majority.
The distinction matters. A disappointing result for Netanyahu's bloc is not the same as a completed change of government — and the final count may yet alter the balance.
Cheers in Nazareth, uncertainty over the result
At the Joint List's headquarters in Nazareth, supporters greeted the exit polls with applause and whistles, according to Reuters' election-night reporting. The reaction reflected the significance of a strong showing for parties representing many of Israel's Palestinian Arab citizens, whose votes may become central to the next stage of the contest.
Updated projections cited by Reuters gave the main opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot 52 seats, Netanyahu's allies 50 and Arab parties 18. Other broadcasters' estimates differed, underlining the uncertainty that accompanies election-night surveys.
A separate Associated Press account likewise found no clear winner, despite the opposition's lead in the principal exit polls. Netanyahu's Likud was still projected to be the largest single party in some forecasts. Israel elects party lists rather than a prime minister directly, making the arithmetic of potential coalitions more important than any single party's place in the standings.
Why Kafr Manda matters to the Arab vote
Kafr Manda, an Arab-majority town in northern Israel, illustrates the strength of support for Arab-led political lists in some communities. In the 2022 election, the Balad, Hadash–Ta'al and Ra'am lists together received roughly 94% of valid votes cast in the town, according to historical constituency figures. Those figures provide background, not a prediction of how residents voted this week.
The town was also named among communities where voters allegedly encountered unusually long queues or delays on Tuesday. The Jerusalem Post reported that the Association for Civil Rights in Israel asked election officials to investigate complaints from several Arab localities, including Kafr Manda. The complaints should not be treated as established findings of deliberate interference.
Claims that residents in Kafr Manda specifically gathered to celebrate a confirmed Netanyahu defeat could not be independently verified for this article. The documented election-night celebrations were at the Joint List's headquarters in Nazareth, and the election outcome remained unsettled.
Arab parties could hold the balance
The larger projected Arab-party representation creates an awkward political calculation for the main blocs. Eisenkot and Netanyahu have both rejected forming a governing coalition with Arab parties. Yet, depending on the final count, those parties may have influence over whether an alternative administration could win parliamentary support, or whether no stable majority can be assembled.
The campaign was marked by clashes over Arab voter participation. Netanyahu urged his supporters to counter what he described as unusually high Arab turnout; Arab political leaders criticised those warnings. Reuters reported that the prime minister's messages became a major election-day controversy.
National turnout reached 77.7%, according to the Central Elections Committee figure reported by Reuters, making it the highest for more than two decades.
What happens next?
Votes were still being counted after polls closed on Tuesday evening. A clearer tally was expected later in the week, with official results scheduled for publication by 4 November. The president will then consult the parties and select a lawmaker to attempt to assemble a government.
Until those steps are completed, Netanyahu's future remains open. The celebrations in Nazareth were real, and the preliminary numbers signalled an electoral setback. They were not proof that a new prime minister had already been chosen.
Sources
Musa Ersoy
Musa Ersoy is an editor and writer at DEFUXA Global News, covering developments in the United Kingdom and around the world. He researches news stories using official statements, credible sources and independently verifiable information. His editorial work focuses on factual ac…
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